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Политика // Шалак Владимир

Trump vs Hillary (2)

Шалак Владимир
доктор философских наук,
ведущий научный сотрудник Института философии РАН


27 сентября мы опубликовали результаты анализа выступлений Дональда Трампа и Хиллари Клинтон во время первых дебатов между ними. Вчера состоялся второй раунд дебатов, транскрипт которых уже опубликован по адресу http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=119038>. Он и послужил материалом для нашего анализа.

Оценки на приводимых ниже диаграммах означают вероятность того, что соответствующая характеристика может быть атрибутирована тексту, если сравнивать его с текстом оппонента.


Если две недели назад доминирующей эмоцией выступления Трампа была Sadness, то вчера на первое место вышли Surprise и Anger.

“She's got tremendous—she's got tremendous hatred. And this country cannot take another four years of Barack Obama, and that's what you're getting with her".
“I think you have to knock out ISIS. Right now, Syria is fighting ISIS. We have people that want to fight both at the same time. But Syria is no longer Syria. Syria is Russia and it's Iran, who she made strong and Kerry and Obama made into a very powerful nation and a very rich nation, very, very quickly, very, very quickly".
“I will say this about Hillary. She doesn't quit. She doesn't give up. I respect that. I tell it like it is. She's a fighter. I disagree with much of what she's fighting for".

Трампа понять можно. Его предвыборная кампания во многом строится на критике результатов двухлетнего правления Барака Обамы.

Хиллари в сравнении с Трампом гораздо менее эмоциональна.


Следующая группа оценок – это семантический дифференциал.

Как и две недели назад у Хиллари сильно выражены оценки по шкалам Positive и Strong. В прошлый раз она получила высокую оценку по шкале Active, но теперь сравнялась с Трампом.

Изменились оценки и у Трампа. По сравнению с прошлыми дебатами у него выросли оценки Negative

“And I will tell you very strongly, when Bernie Sanders said she had bad judgment, she has really bad judgment, because we are letting people into this country that are going to cause problems and crime like you've never seen".
“Why can't they do the attack, make it a sneak attack, and after the attack is made, inform the American public that we've knocked out the leaders, we've had a tremendous success?"
“You know, when we have a world where you have ISIS chopping off heads, where you have—and, frankly, drowning people in steel cages, where you have wars and horrible, horrible sights all over, where you have so many bad things happening, this is like medieval times".
“And when she said irredeemable, they're irredeemable, you didn't mention that, but when she said they're irredeemable, to me that might have been even worse".

и Passive.

“Hillary Clinton has friends that want all of these provisions, including they want the carried interest provision, which is very important to Wall Street people".
“We have unbelievable—we have found over the last seven years, we have found tremendous wealth right under our feet".
“And all you have to do is go to a great place like West Virginia or places like Ohio, which is phenomenal, or places like Pennsylvania and you see what they're doing to the people, miners and others in the energy business".
“And all you have to do is take a look at WikiLeaks and just see what they say about Bernie Sanders and see what Deborah Wasserman Schultz had in mind, because Bernie Sanders, between super-delegates and Deborah Wasserman Schultz, he never had a chance".

Если рост оценок Negative можно объяснить критикой в адрес оппонента, то рост оценок Passive работает против имиджа Трампа, как успешного человека.

Communication style

Следующие оценки характеризуют то, к каким системам образов и понятий прибегали участники дебатов, чтобы донести до аудитории свою позицию.

Если в прошлый раз Хиллари выделялась апелляцией к рассудку Rational, то теперь в сравнении с Трампом она стала более активно использовать чувственные Kinesthetic образы.

“And the Affordable Care Act was meant to try to fill the gap between people who were too poor and couldn't put together any resources to afford health care, namely people on Medicaid".
“We are going to be looking for ways to celebrate our diversity, and we are going to try to reach out to every boy and girl, as well as every adult, to bring them in to working on behalf of our country".
“After 9/11, I went to work with Republican mayor, governor and president to rebuild New York and to get health care for our first responders who were suffering because they had run toward danger and gotten sickened by it".
“And as president, I will take that work, that bipartisan work, that finding common ground, because you have to be able to get along with people to get things done in Washington".


Хиллари Клинтон предпочитает говорить о будущем Future, которое интересует людей в первую очередь.

“He would send us back into recession with his tax plans that benefit the wealthiest of Americans".
“Democrats, Republicans, independents, people across our country. If you don't vote for me, I still want to be your president?.
“I would not use American ground forces in Syria. I think that would be a very serious mistake. I don't think American troops should be holding territory, which is what they would have to do as an occupying force".
“I hope that they will see their way to doing it, but if I am so fortunate enough as to be president, I will immediately move to make sure that we fill that, we have nine justices that get to work on behalf of our people".

В то же время, по сравнению с прошлыми дебатами она стала больше говорить и о прошлом Past.

“So let's fix what's broken about it, but let's not throw it away and give it all back to the insurance companies and the drug companies".
“Look, we are in a situation in our country where if we were to start all over again, we might come up with a different system".
“Yes, Warren Buffett is the one who's gone out and said somebody like him should not be paying a lower tax rate than his secretary. I want to have a surcharge on incomes above $5 million. We have to make up for lost times, because I want to invest in you".
“And I think it's been unfortunate, but it's happened, that since the Great Recession, the gains have all gone to the top".

Ошибка Трампа в том, что он мало говорит о будущем, а люди этого ждут, поскольку связывают надежды на изменения в лучшую сторону именно с будущим, а не одними лишь напоминаниями, как все было плохо в прошлом Past.

“And by the way, at the last debate, she lied, because it turned out that she did say the gold standard and she said she didn't say it".
“We have to worry about ISIS before we can get too much more involved".
“But what President Clinton did, he was impeached, he lost his license to practice law".
“And I will tell you that when Hillary brings up a point like that and she talks about words that I said 11 years ago, I think it's disgraceful, and I think she should be ashamed of herself, if you want to know the truth".
“President Obama, by keeping those lines, the boundary lines around each state, it was almost gone until just very toward the end of the passage of Obamacare, which, by the way, was a fraud".


Оценки Toward и From имеют отношение к направлению мотивации. Toward – это постановка и стремление к достижению новых целей. From – акцентирование внимание на допущенных ошибках и их исправлении.

Во время первых дебатов Хиллари в сравнении с Трампом предпочитала говорить о новых целях на будущее, а Трамп говорил об исправлении прошлых ошибок. В этот раз от также говорит о необходимости преодоления имеющихся недостатков, но и почти сравнялся с Хиллари по вопросу, а к чему же необходимо стремиться?

“I will bring our energy companies back. They'll be able to compete. They'll make money. They'll pay off our national debt".
“People are pouring into our country, and they're coming in from the Middle East and other places. We're going to make America safe again. We're going to make America great again, but we're going to make America safe again".
“I believe we have to get ISIS. We have to worry about ISIS before we can get too much more involved".
“But if I win, I am going to instruct my attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation, because there has never been so many lies, so much deception".


Оценки основаны на частоте употребления личных местоимений. Исследованием того, что за этим стоит, занимался профессор James W. Pennebaker.

Согласно его результатам, люди, у которых возникают проблемы, начинают больше обращать внимания на свой внутренний мир, что находит отражение в языке ростом частоты употребления местоимений – I, my, me, myself. Это и есть оценки Position-I. Люди, которые уверены в себе и своих силах, чаще употребляют местоимения we, our, us (Position-IV) и you, he, she (Position-II).

В первых дебатах у Трампа были высокие оценки Position-I и Position-II, а у Хиллари – Position-IV. Это позволило нам заключить “о неуверенности, тревожности, наличии проблем у Трампа. Он сосредоточен на себе" и “Клинтон, отдавая предпочтение различным формам местоимения ‘we’ предпочитает говорить не от своего имени, а от имени народа. Она более уверена в своих силах."

За две недели ситуация изменилась. Несмотря на недавние скандалы, Трамп приобрел большую уверенность в своих силах по сравнению с Хиллари. Она же, продолжая говорить ‘we’ от имени народа, стала все чаще обращаться к своему внутреннему миру. Это хорошо видно по следующим цитатам.

“So I have a comprehensive energy policy, but it really does include fighting climate change, because I think that is a serious problem. And I support moving toward more clean, renewable energy as quickly as we can, because I think we can be the 21st century clean energy superpower and create millions of new jobs and businesses".
“I want to be the best president I can be for every American".
“So I have very clear views about what I want to see to kind of change the balance on the Supreme Court".
“So, first and foremost, I will do everything I can to reach out to everybody".
“Well, I certainly will, because I think that's a very fair and important question".

Можно высказать предположение, что случилось что-то, что вызывает у нее тревогу.


Чем сильнее у человека потребность в чем-то, тем более активные действия он осуществляет по удовлетворению этой потребности. Потребности можно разделить на внешние - я должен (External need) , и внутренние – я хочу (Internal need). Люди, у которых доминируют внешние потребности, дисциплинированы и целеустремлены. Как мы видим оценки External need у Трампа и у Хиллари практически одинаковы. В то же время оценки Internal need у Хиллари, в отличие от Трампа, очень высокие. Это говорит о ее большей энергетике. В этом она безусловно выигрывает. Стать президентом – цель ее жизни.

“Democrats, Republicans, independents, people across our country. If you don't vote for me, I still want to be your president".
“I'd never get to talk about anything I want to do and how we're going to really make lives better for people".
“I want to be the best president I can be for every American".
“I will be the president and we will get it done. That's exactly right".
“I've proven that I can, and for 30 years, I've produced results for people".
“And as president, I will take that work, that bipartisan work, that finding common ground, because you have to be able to get along with people to get things done in Washington".


Наиболее известны и хорошо исследованы объясняющих поведение людей три мотива.

Мотив власти Power – стремление починять и управлять социальным окружением.

Мотив достижения Achievement - стремление добиваться успехов в разных видах деятельности, особенно в ситуациях соревнования с другими людьми.

Мотив аффиляции Affiliation – поиск поддержки со стороны других людей и их групп.

Как мы видим, по силе выраженности всех трех мотивов Хиллари опережает Трампа.


“I fought against as a senator and that I would have a trade prosecutor to make sure that we don't get taken advantage of by China on steel or anything else".
“And so I would want to see the Supreme Court reverse Citizens United and get dark, unaccountable money out of our politics".
“And the money is with people who have taken advantage of every single break in the tax code. And, yes, when I was a senator, I did vote to close corporate loopholes".


“And we're going to make sure that nobody, no corporation, and no individual can get away without paying his fair share to support our country".
“So I want us to get to 100 percent, but get costs down and keep quality up".
“I have said nobody who makes less than $250,000 a year—and that's the vast majority of Americans as you know—will have their taxes raised, because I think we've got to go where the money is".


“And that's exactly what I have proposed. I hope you will go to HillaryClinton.com and look at my entire policy".
“Obviously, Medicare, which is a single-payer system, which takes care of our elderly and does a great job doing it, by the way, and then all of the people who were employed, but people who were working but didn't have the money to afford insurance and didn't have anybody, an employer or anybody else, to help them".
“And that's why I hope people will check on that for themselves so that they can see that, yes, I've spent 30 years, actually maybe a little more, working to help kids and families. And I want to take all that experience to the White House and do that every single day".


Наши оценки не касались содержания предвыборных программ двух кандидатов. Если же судить с точки зрения успешности коммуникации и воздействия на аудиторию, то Хиллари Клинтон незначительно опережает Дональда Трампа. Он так и не сумел мобилизоваться после первых дебатов. Следующий раунд уже через десять дней 19 октября 2016.

10 октября 2016

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  (С) Шалак В.И. Рейтинг@Mail.ru