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Политика // Шалак Владимир

Trump vs Hillary (3)

Шалак Владимир
доктор философских наук,
ведущий научный сотрудник Института философии РАН

vaal_project@mail.ru

Президентская гонка неумолимо приближается к концу. Вчера состоялся третий раунд дебатов, транскрипт которых уже размещен в Интернете. Он и послужил материалом для нашего анализа.


Оценки на приводимых ниже диаграммах означают вероятность того, что соответствующая характеристика может быть атрибутирована тексту, если сравнивать его с текстом оппонента.

Emotions

Как и на вторых дебатах доминирующими эмоциями выступления Трампа были Sadness, Surprise и Anger.

“First of all, she wants to give amnesty, which is a disaster and very unfair to all the people who are waiting in line for many years."

"So we have the toughest laws and you have tremendous gun violence. I am a very strong supporter of the second amendment."
"She can say that her husband did well, but boy, did they suffer as NAFTA kicked in because it didn't really kick in very much but it kicked in after they left."
"But I will tell you what isn't fictionalized are her e-mails where she destroyed 33,000 e-mails criminally, criminally, after getting a subpoena from the United States Congress. What happened to the FBI?"
"She's guilty of a very, very serious crime. She should not be allowed to run."
"And she wants to make it's even worse. And it can't get any worse. Bad Hillary Clinton — at the most we have to repeal and replace”.

Трамп продолжает критиковать Хиллари и все, что с ней связано.

Интересная ситуация сложилась с Хиллари Клинтон. Если во время первых и вторых дебатах она не слишком сильно проявляла свои эмоции, то в этот раз произошел резкий рост страха Fear.

“I have met with women who toward the end of their pregnancy, get the worst news one could get, that their health is in jeopardy if they continue to carry to term or that something terrible has happened or just been discovered about the pregnancy."
"Because I support the second amendment doesn't mean that I want people who shouldn't have guns to be able to threaten you, kill you or members of your family. And so when I think about what we need to do, we have 33,000 people a year who die from guns."
"And using that kind of scare rhetoric is just terribly unfortunate."
"Let me respond to that, because that's horrifying."
"He said if we have them, why don't we use them, which I think is terrifying."
"So let's be clear about what the threat is and how we are best going to be able to meet it. And yes, some of that threat emanates from over in Syria and Iraq, and we've got to keep fighting”.

Предпочтение должно быть отдано Трампу.

Attitude

Следующая группа оценок – это семантический дифференциал.

Как и во время вторых дебатов у Хиллари сильно выражены оценки по шкалам Positive и Strong.

“We need to go after the leadership, but we need to get rid of them, get rid of their fighters, their estimated several thousand fighters in Mosul."
"Fact is, he's going to advocate for the largest tax cuts we've ever seen. Three times more than the tax cuts under the Bush administration."
"He even supported shutting the government down to defund planned parenthood. I will defend Planned Parenthood. I will defend Roe v. Wade and I will defend women's rights to make their own health care decisions”.

У Трампа на первое место вышла оценка Passive

“You have mothers, fathers, relatives all over the county. They're coming in illegally. Drugs are pouring in through the border. We have no country if we have no border. Hillary wants to give amnesty, she wants to have open borders."
"We have to tell Japan in a very nice way, we have to tell Germany, all of these countries, South Korea, we have to say, you have to help us out. We have during his regime, during President Obama's regime, we've doubled our national debt."
"And you take a look at the people of Haiti. I was in little Haiti the other day in Florida. And I want to tell you, they hate the Clintons because what's happened in Haiti with the Clinton Foundation is a disgrace. And you know it and they know it and everybody knows it”.

По оценкам семантического дифференциала Хиллари впереди Трампа.

Communication style

Следующие оценки характеризуют то, к каким системам образов и понятий прибегали участники дебатов, чтобы донести до аудитории свою позицию.

Из четырех каналов коммуникации Трамп использует только слуховой Audial.

“You read it in all the papers, going to potentially serve five years in jail for lying to the FBI. One lie. She's lied hundreds of times to the people, to congress, and to the FBI."
"So let me just give you one other thing as I talk about the corrupt media. I talk about the millions of people. I tell you one other thing."
"We have to tell Japan in a very nice way, we have to tell Germany, all of these countries, South Korea, we have to say, you have to help us out”.

По сравнению со вторыми дебатами Хиллари стала гораздо чаще использовать зрительные Visual образы.

“I guess he believes it makes him look better now to contrast with me because I did vote for it."
"That picture of that little 4-year-old boy in Aleppo with the blood coming down his face while he sat in an ambulance is haunting."
"We stand up for the rights of people in the workplace, that we stand up and basically say the Supreme Court should represent all of us. That's how I see the court and the kind of people that I would be looking to nominate to the court would be in the great tradition of standing up to the powerful, standing up on behalf of our rights as Americans, and I look forward to having that opportunity”.

Можно с уверенностью сказать, что в использовании каналов коммуникации Хиллари была более искусна.

Time

Кардинально изменилась ситуация со временем. Наконец-то, хоть и с запозданием, Трамп начал говорить не только о прошлом, но и о будущем Future, что он собирается сделать, когда станет президентом. Слышать и читать это очень интересно.

“One of my first acts will be to get all of the drug lords, we have some bad, bad people in this country this have to go out. We'll get them out, secure the bothered and once the border is secured at a later date we'll make a determination as to the rest. But we have some bad hombres here and we're going to get them out."
"I'm going to renegotiate NAFTA. And if I can't make a great deal, then we're going to terminate nafta and great new deals. We'll have trade, but we'll terminate it, we'll make a great trade deal. And if we can't, we're going to go a separate way because it has been a disaster. We're going to cut taxes massively. We'll cut business taxes massively. They're going to start hiring people. We're going to bring the $2.5 trillion that's offshore back into the country. We're going to start the engine rolling again because right now our country is dying at 1 percent GDP. "
"We're not going to let our countries be raided by other countries where we don't make our product anymore. It's very sad. I'm going to create a kind of country that we were from the standpoint of industry."
"If we put another two or perhaps three justices on, that will happen. And that will happen automatically in my opinion because I'm putting pro-life justices on the court. I will say this, it will go back to the states a tornado states will then make a determination."
"I'm cutting tax. We're going to grow the economy. It's going grow at a record rate.
We are going to appoint justices. This is the best way to help the second amendment. We're going to appoint justices that will feel very seriously about the second amendment. That will not do damage to the second amendment. "
"I will do more for African Americans and Latinos than she can ever do in ten lifetimes. All she has done is talk to the African Americans and to the Latinos. But they get the vote and then they come back — they say we'll see you in four years. We are going to make America strong again. And we are going to make America great again. "
"They have no idea where they come from and you see, we are going to stop radical islamic terrorism in this country. She won't even mention the words and neither will president Obama."
"You read it in all the papers, going to potentially serve five years in jail for lying to the FBI”.

Трамп сумел проявить себя гораздо лучше, чем Хиллари.

Motivation Direction

Оценки Toward и From имеют отношение к направлению мотивации. Toward – это постановка и стремление к достижению новых целей. From – акцентирование внимание на допущенных ошибках и их исправлении.

Несмотря на то, что Хиллари Клинтон говорила о будущем гораздо меньше Трампа, она мотивированна на цели будущего Toward, особо не задумываясь о прошлых неудачах From.

“So I'm happy to compare my 30 years of experience, what I've done for this country, trying to help in every way I could, especially kids and families get ahead and stay ahead with your 30 years. And I'll let the American people make that decision."
"We need to go after the leadership, but we need to get rid of them, get rid of their fighters, their estimated several thousand fighters in Mosul."
"Fact is, he's going to advocate for the largest tax cuts we've ever seen."
"I do have investments, investments in new jobs, investments in education, skill training and the opportunities for people who get ahead and stay ahead”.

Positions

Оценки основаны на частоте употребления личных местоимений. Исследованием того, что за этим стоит, занимался профессор James W. Pennebaker.

Согласно его результатам, люди, у которых возникают проблемы, начинают больше обращать внимания на свой внутренний мир, что находит отражение в языке ростом частоты употребления местоимений – I, my, me, myself. Это и есть оценки Position-I. Люди, которые уверены в себе и своих силах, чаще употребляют местоимения we, our, us (Position-IV) и you, he, she (Position-II).

Динамика в изменении употребления местоимений единственного I, my, me, myself Position-I и множественного we, our, us Position-IV числа первого лица в сравнении с первыми и вторыми дебатами говорит об очень многом. Хиллари все более неуверена в себе

“I'm against it now, I'll be against it after the election, I'll be against it when I'm President."
"That's how I see the court and the kind of people that I would be looking to nominate to the court would be in the great tradition of standing up to the powerful, standing up on behalf of our rights as Americans, and I look forward to having that opportunity."
"So when I talk about how we're going to pay for education, how we're going to invest in infrastructure, how we're going to get the cost of prescription drugs down, and a lot of the other issues that people talk to me about all the time, I've made it very clear, we are going where the money is”.

а Трамп начинает говорить и вести себя, как будущий хозяин Белого дома

“We'll get them out, secure the bothered and once the border is secured at a later date we'll make a determination as to the rest. But we have some bad hombres here and we're going to get them out."
"We have to tell Japan in a very nice way, we have to tell Germany, all of these countries, South Korea, we have to say, you have to help us out. We have during his regime, during President Obama's regime, we've doubled our national debt."
"We have to use our great people. We will create an economic machine the likes of which we haven't seen in many decades."
"We have the greatest people on Earth in our military. Well don't take care off our veterans. We take care of illegal immigrants better than we take care of our military”.

Предпочтение должно быть отдано Трампу.

Need

Чем сильнее у человека потребность в чем-то, тем более активные действия он предпринимает для удовлетворению этой потребности. Потребности можно разделить на внешние - я должен (External need) , и внутренние – я хочу (Internal need). Люди, у которых доминируют внешние потребности, дисциплинированы и целеустремлены.

Как мы видим, баланс по сравнению со вторыми дебатами, хоть и не очень сильно, но изменился. Трамп ведет себя более достойно и в первую очередь руководствуется внешними потребностями (External need) - я должен.

“We should have never let ISIS in the first place."
"Because she should never -- Chris, she should never have been allowed to run for the presidency based on what she did with e-mails and so many other things."
"And frankly, you should have changed the laws. If you don't like what I did, you should have changed the laws."
"So Mosul is going to be a wonderful thing, and Iran should write us a letter of thank you, just like really stupid, the stupidest deal of all time. A deal that is going to give Iran absolutely nuclear weapons. Iran should write us yet another letter saying thank you very much."
"I don't think we should have justices appointed that decide what they want to hear."
"We should have never been in Iraq. But once we were there, we never should have got out the way they wanted to get out”.

В отличие от него у Хиллари превалируют внутренние потребности (Internal need)- я хочу . В будущем это чревато неожиданностями.

“I think it's really up to all of us to demonstrate who we are and who our country is and to stand up and be very clear about what we expect from our next president, how we want to bring our country together where we don't want to have the kind of pitting of people one against the other, where instead we celebrate our diversity, we lift people up."
"I want to make college debt free and for families making less than $125,000, you will not get a division bill from a public college or university if the plan that I worked on with Bernie Sanders is enacted."
"That's how I see the court and the kind of people that I would be looking to nominate to the court would be in the great tradition of standing up to the powerful, standing up on behalf of our rights as Americans, and I look forward to having that opportunity. I would hope that the senate would do its job and confirm the nominee that President Obama has sent to them”.

Достаточно очевидно, что Трамп более предпочтителен на посту президента.

Motivation

Наиболее известны и хорошо исследованы объясняющих поведение людей три мотива.

Мотив власти Power – стремление починять и управлять социальным окружением.

Мотив достижения Achievement - стремление добиваться успехов в разных видах деятельности, особенно в ситуациях соревнования с другими людьми.

Мотив аффиляции Affiliation – поиск поддержки со стороны других людей и их групп.


Как мы видим, по силе выраженности мотивов Хиллари опережает Трампа. Для нее – стать первой женщиной президентом США – это цель жизни, и она будет бороться за нее до самого последнего дня.

Выводы

По итогам последних дебатов небольшое предпочтение должно быть отдано Трампу. Он показал, что образ эксцентричного человека навязывается ему с помощью масс-медиа и не соответствует его действительным личностным качествам. Он готов взять на себя ответственность и стать президентом США.

21 октября 2016






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  (С) Шалак В.И. Рейтинг@Mail.ru